This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
$8,404,249.833 VOL.
$17,500,940.476 VOL.
$70,166,245.359 VOL.
$921,359.841 VOL.
$571,796.007 VOL.
These markets are provided by Polymarket. Probabilities are calculated as the midpoint between bid and ask prices when available (treating missing bids as 0). For markets with bid-ask spreads wider than 10¢, the last traded price is used when available.