If the Supreme Court, in Louisiana v. Callais, rules to significantly weaken or eliminate Section 2 vote dilution protections, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court issues a controlling merits decision before August 1, 2026 in Louisiana v. Callais (including any consolidated cases under that caption) that does any of the following: (a) holds Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, 52 U.S.C. § 10301, unconstitutional in whole or in part; (b) overrules Thornburg v. Gingles or modifies its effects-based standard so that plaintiffs must prove intentional discrimination (not merely discriminatory effects) to establish vote dilution; (c) holds that race-conscious redistricting remedies ordered to comply with Section 2 violate the Equal Protection Clause; (d) holds that states may defeat Section 2 vote-dilution claims by asserting partisan motivation as a defense where partisan justifications negate Section 2 liability even when discriminatory effects are proven; or (e) holds that Section 2 does not authorize vote-dilution claims or redistricting-based challenges. Any decision satisfying (a)–(e) counts even if accompanied by a remand.

Series KXSCOTUSVRA2 Event KXSCOTUSVRA2 Market KXSCOTUSVRA2