If Abigail Spanberger's margin of victory outperforms that of the final Real Clear Polling average in the 2025 Virginia Governor election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it does not exceed the poll figure. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No. <p>For the purposes of this market, the Real Clear Polling average for the 2025 Virginia Governor election at 10AM EST on November 4, 2025 will be used to determine relative performance. </p> <p>For a winning candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For a losing candidate, the margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the candidate’s vote share and the vote share of the candidate immediately ahead of them. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. </p> <p>Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond expiration, or no certified results are available, the market will resolve to No. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results.</p>

Series KXSPANBERGEROUTPERFORMRCP-25NOV04 Event KXSPANBERGEROUTPERFORMRCP-25NOV04 Market KXSPANBERGEROUTPERFORMRCP-25NOV04