If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round. In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes. Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies. The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds. Blank votes, null votes, and invalid ballots are excluded unless electoral law specifically includes them. The market resolves once the relevant electoral body declares whether anyone won the first round.

Series KXTEXASGOP1ROUND-26MAR03 Event KXTEXASGOP1ROUND-26MAR03 Market KXTEXASGOP1ROUND-26MAR03