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Which countries will have a recession?

Economics

Economics

$12,133 VOL.

58%YES 62¢NO 42¢

$9,442 VOL.

54%YES 58¢NO 46¢

$13,890 VOL.

49%YES 54¢NO 51¢

$2,152 VOL.

15%YES 18¢NO 85¢

$16,717 VOL.

12%YES 13¢NO 88¢

If China has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The exact dataset for China is GDP, Nominal, Unadjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.

Opened: Apr 23, 2024, 8:00 AM

Closes: 2027-12-31T15:00:00Z

Pays out: 1 hours after closing

If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. Otherwise, it closes by Dec 31, 2027, 10:00 AM.

Series WRECSS-26 Event WRECSS-26 Market WRECSS-26-PRC