If the Progress Party (FrP) has won below 38 seats in the 2025 Norwegian general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

Series KXNORWAYPROGRESS-25SEP08 Event KXNORWAYPROGRESS-25SEP08 Market KXNORWAYPROGRESS-25SEP08-NA